ASIA 2009 -
Where now in a post-asset-bubble world?
As central banks become lenders
of first resort, the jury is still out in Asia, where banks have been spared
the massive write-downs now afflicting others in the US and Europe.
One view emerging in Asia is that much of the world is collapsing into an ‘L’-shaped
recession, but intra-Asia trade, the sheer size of China’s economy, and
renewed activity of cashed-up Japanese banks may see Asia escape with sub-par
three per cent growth.
In our lead report, Robert McCauley, outgoing Chief Representative
(Asia) of the Bank for International Settlements, the co-ordinating body for
world monetary authorities, says further write-downs and asset disposals will
add to what he calls the “capital constraints and related funding needs” of
companies around the world.
Also in ASIA2009 . . . No ‘1929’ this time – but
watch the next cycle; China last man standing, or last to go down? Currencies
markets punish those with export exposures; Is Asia ready to cash in?
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AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR MAY DRIFT TO 54 US CENTS - ANZ BANK
MELBOURNE – ANZ Bank is now predicting an Australian dollar valued at only 54 US cents by the end of 2009 – adding that there is still downside risk even to this forecast. ANZ says it has undertaken a substantial downward revision to its forecasts for the AUD, reflecting a significant downgrade to the outlook for global growth, commodity prices and interest rates. Its AUD forecast is driven by its forecasts for US and Australian interest rates, and commodity prices. “We are comfortable that our forecasts for the Fed funds rate to reach 0.75% and for the RBA cash rate to reach 3.5% are likely to materialise, with broadly stable yield curves. The main uncertainty is in commodity prices," says ANZ. "We currently have pencilled in oil reaching US$40/bbl – close to its long-term average – and the RBA commodity price index falling by 38% in US$ terms on an annual basis by June 2009. Further falls in commodity prices to below our present forecasts would force a further downgrade to our AUD forecast. Risk aversion is likely to remain an important drag on the AUD. We estimate the AUD is trading at an 8-10 US cent discount to fair value. This is a result of the high trading volumes of the AUD relative to other commodity-related currencies, which causes investors to use the AUD as a proxy for emerging markets and other high-yield types of trades. The rapid decline in global risk appetite and sharp rise in market volatility has hit the AUD hard, and will likely continue to do so in the months ahead. As such, we have forecast a spot rate that is at somewhat of a discount to what we estimate will be fair value for the AUD.” (ATI)
GREAT WALL MOTOR WINS EUROPEAN E1-MARK APPROVAL
GUANGZHOU - Chinese car maker Great Wall Motor Company Limited (SEHK:2333) has obtained E1-MARK approval, said Wei Jianjun, the company's board Chairman. The certification acknowledged that Great Wall's factories have met the European Union standard on compliance capacity and quality control. Great Wall is the first car maker in China to win the strict European certification, paving the way for homegrown vehicles to enter the European market. The certification was conducted by the China Quality Certification Center under the authorisation of TUV Rheiland and approved by German Federal Motor Transport Authority (KBA) (Asia Pulse).
Beijing ups ante in South China Sea – warning ExxonMobil
not to enter exploration contract with Hanoi
•
Asia’s carmakers going up-market, offshore for sales
•
OECD maps tax, labour reform needs for Japan
•
1965 coup secrets buried with Suharto
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OUR ONE-STOP SHOP – Products and Services,
itemised by category; Contact Directories (Professional Services, Banking and
Finance, Education and Training, Trade Services and Logistics, the ASIA2007 Directory);
Direct links to Government trade and investment sites.
Storming through into 2008 – In our special ASIA2008 issue, we ask: What price sub-prime? The answer. No-one really knows.
The US sub-prime crisis leads our assessment of the outlook for Asian economies in 2008, also likely to be impacted by falling commodity prices, higher oil prices and fluctuating (in many cases, rising) currencies. Charles Dallara, Managing Director of the Institute of International Finance (IIF), private-sector equivalent to the IMF, provides valuable insight, together with a number of other leading economists and forecasters.
We look at the US-China relationship, where the US stands on freer world trade, the challenges for Asia in infrastructure needs, trends in foreign exchange deregulation and securitisation, and the inflation outlook. Also at the impact on foreign business of ongoing tax reforms in Asia.
ASIA2008 assesses challenge and opportunity in India, China, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, Pakistan and Bangladesh.
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November 10-14, 2008
A Mission from the Hong Kong Software Outsourcing Association and the Hong Kong Wireless Technology Industry Association is visiting Melbourne (November 10), Adelaide (November 11-12) and Sydney (November 13-14) to present partnership opportunities for ICT companies with Hong Kong and Greater China in areas of risk management, compliance, BPO, and strategic and project management. Inquiries to Peter Bosevski at the Hong Kong Trade Development Council, tel (61 2) 9261-8911, email peter.bosevski@tdc.org.hk
December 2-5, 2008
OSEA2008 – Oil and Gas Exploration and Production, Suntec Singapore - Asia’s largest oil and gas exploration and production industry exhibition and conference. Organisers expect 1,400 exhibitors from 49 countries, showcasing the latest technology and solutions in offshore exploration, recovery, transport and processing. The OSEA International Conference will address immediate issues emerging from rising demand and prices for oil. http://www.osea-asia.com
November 13-14, 2008
Second annual China Securitization & Debt Capital Markets Summit, Inter.Continental Beijing. With exclusive endorsement from the China Securitization Forum (CSF), IMN has been working closely with China’s industry leaders to create quality debate and cutting-edge discussion. This year’s summit will once again focus on the main issues and key developments that face the world’s fastest-growing economy. It will review the impact of the sub-prime crisis, explore Chinese securitization law and regulatory progress, evaluate real estate developments, analyze new issues and discuss the concerns and trends that face those involved in the Chinese market. Further information at www.imn.org/esb1081/ate http://www.imn.org/esb1081/ate
ASIA2008 Directory [ PDF - 256kb ]
2008 Banking Finance Directory [ PDF - 95kb ]
2008 Professional Services Directory [ PDF
- 228kb ]
2008 Trade Services and Logistics Directory [ PDF - 433kb ]
